So I have to start with a big ‘thank you’ to everyone for your
comments and questions on my article, ‘Who Will Disrupt the Tyre
Industry?’. Most of the questions and comments were focused around drone
technology and flying cars. Since I was asked by many of you to write further
on this topic I thought I would oblige and write an article on some of the
developments in this emerging technology. Now, to the main question that you
all asked me – will drones and flying cars disrupt the tyre industry out of
existence?
Well simply put – I don’t think so! Although I
think that this emerging technology will undoubtedly bring massive incremental
changes, these changes will be innovative rather than disruptive. And to
understand why it won't be the disruptive force that many people imagine, we
first need to look at the technology itself.
If you happened to have read some of the recent
headlines in the world's media, you'd be forgiven for thinking that we're all
going to be travelling about in flying cars and that the skies are going to be
full of passenger drones by this time next year! In the US, we read that Uber
have just hired an engineer from NASA to lead their flying car project, while
in the Middle East, The Roads and Transport Authority in Dubai in collaboration
with the Chinese company Ehang, are due to launch an autonomous passenger drone
in Dubai this coming summer. And let's not forget Airbus who aim to have their
flying car prototype ready by the end of the year. So there is clearly a lot of
innovation happening within our industry and companies looking to collaborate
with one another, but such stories can be misleading in the sense that they can
make it appear as though this emerging technology is much further along in
development than it actually is.
To get a more realistic sense of both the strengths
and limitations of this technology, we need look no further than the recent
collaboration between Matternet and Mercedes-Benz, who have utilised both drone
and van technology create the Vision Van. So “M and M” have equipped self-driving vans
with drone delivery systems, so the van does most of the journey and the drone
acts as a 'last-mile solution'. Whilst this is rather innovative it also serves
to highlight the biggest problem currently facing the drone industry. Because
although drones are brilliant for getting to inaccessible areas, they simply
don't have the power capacity to travel across long distances without running
out of charge and dropping right out of the sky, which is a pretty major
drawback! So “M and M” have created an elegant workaround to a problem but not
really disrupted anything. When they solve the battery problem, that’s when
things will get interesting!
The other important factor to consider is
regulation. Implementing safety regulations and building flying car and
passenger drone transportation routes in the sky isn't one of those things that
simply happens overnight. The logistics of creating a system that is safe and
efficient enough to convince people to abandon their traditional cars in favour
of a flying equivalent is complex to say the very least. In fact Elon Musk is
worried about people not maintaining their flying cars well and hub caps
falling out of the sky and killing people. So that futuristic 'Jetson's-like'
world of drones and flying cars that many of us have been envisioning is
unlikely to become a reality for a while now, by which time we may have
discovered an even better way to travel.
How can I be certain of this? I know that we're
not even close to seeing drones and flying cars become the everyday norm because
of what I see happening in the tech startups that we invest in through our venture
capital fund, Walpole Capital. Whilst I see great innovation happening, we are
nowhere near close to solving the battery problem or implementing the
regulations and safety measures that are necessary to make this technology a
dominant commercial force within our industry. In fact, even the engineers from
NASA are yet to find a solution to these problems! Although the way things are
today with the NASA bureaucracy it will be that 14 year old I mentioned in my
last article that will beat them to it!
So tyres aren’t going anywhere soon! But this
doesn't mean that we shouldn't keep abreast of all the developments in flying
car and drone technology so that we know who to partner and collaborate with.
Because as we've seen from the partnership between “M and M” progressive
incremental changes within our industry are inevitable and happening as we
speak. And by collaborating with other companies, we can be involved in
defining those changes rather than risk being left behind by them, and
ultimately in the long-term our industry can only gain and be bolstered by this.
We need to stop this fear in our industry of change and see new technology as
the opportunity for progression and innovation that it is. And who knows the
more we innovate perhaps the less we are likely to get disrupted!
