Who will disrupt the Tyre Industry?

People always confuse disruption with innovation. Innovation is evolution, whereas disruption is revolution. Innovation makes the old ways better, whereas disruption makes the old ways obsolete! But most importantly in business, innovation allows you a 10% growth while disruption allows you a 10X growth.

We've already seen two technological revolutions in our lifetime that have caused major disruption – the internet and the smartphone. And thanks to the digital revolution, disruption is now happening more frequently and at a faster pace than ever before. So we're going to experience more disruption than previous generations ever did – disruption that will revolutionise business models and industries in ways that we can't yet imagine. So who will disrupt the automotive/tyre industry?

In our industry, the last major disruption was the introduction of the motor car in the early 1900s. How many horse and carts do we see on the streets today? Clearly, the car disrupted the horse and cart out of commercial existence. So now our old school, white, male-dominated industry is ripe for disruption and trust me (from the startups that I see as a venture capitalist), it is coming sooner than we think! And moreover, I can tell you that it will not happen as a result of the legacy manufacturers making better tyres, improving distribution systems or selling tyres on the internet. Like in every other industry, disruption in our industry will come from the outside.

Look at the mobile phone industry – Nokia were undoubtedly one of the most innovative companies and arguably the industry leaders in this technology, yet in the space of just a few years, Nokia’s reign was well and truly ended. And this happened because of one reason – disruption, which Nokia just didn’t see coming. Because while Nokia had their eyes on their competitors, Apple came and ate their lunch! Let’s look at the medical industry for another example – CRISPR/CAS9 – (the genome editing tool that will enable scientists to weaponise human cells against cancer) could potentially be a cure for cancer and would ultimately disrupt the medical field. Where did this come from? You guessed it – from outside the medical field. Every industry has such examples!

So who will disrupt our industry? Some industry observers say that Zenises (along with Alzura) is well on its way to disrupting the industry, being the first company in the world to offer tyres as a service across the internet. To those people I argue that what Zenises has done is definitely innovative but not disruptive. To understand disruption in our industry, we really need to understand not just what we do but why we do it. What we do is sell tyres and if we see our industry from that narrow perspective then Zenises is disrupting it. But if we understand the reason why we do what we do, which is to provide mobility, then we can see that we are merely a small fragment of a much larger industry. From this position, we can see that there are many more companies and individuals that have the potential to disrupt our industry. So disruption in the industry could come from the company making flying cars – if that ‘takes off’ and we end up living in a world like ‘The Jetsons’, tyres would become obsolete. Or disruption could happen as a result of tech companies taking virtual reality technology to a level that it negates the need for travel. Perhaps the companies creating personalised drone transport could disrupt the industry, or maybe it will be a company that works with a combination of these technologies or different technologies altogether. Such companies may sound futuristic but they already exist, and two of them have even received investments from our venture capital fund.

My idea here is simply to get my colleagues to start ‘thinking outside the box’ and seeing beyond our industry, as this would perhaps enable them to come up with their own ideas for disrupting it. So what will the Apple or CRISPR for the tyre industry be and how will it work? I don’t know, but you can count on it that there's a 14 year old kid somewhere outside the industry figuring it out (hopefully one whose company I have already invested in)!

The Rise of Automated Vehicle Technology

The digital revolution has affected the auto industry in many ways, but perhaps one of the most exciting and potentially cataclysmic changes currently taking place is the development of automated vehicle technology. Up until the late 1970s, automated cars, or 'robo-cars' as they are otherwise known, only existed within the realms of science fiction. Fast forward to today and some serious advances have been made in perfecting the technology. In fact, during a recent visit to Silicon Valley I was lucky enough to see a Google autonomous car driving right beside me, so it won't be long before they become a familiar sight on the roads of the world's major cities.

Volvo for example, have stated that they aim to have 100 automated cars on the roads of Gothenburg by as early as next year, while Tesla have already released their auto-pilot software and plan to offer their customers the full self-driving experience by 2018. And let's not forget Ford, who have recently tripled their investment in semi-automated systems in order to compete with technology behemoths such as Google ( who just spun out its self driving unit into a separate company called Waymo ) and Apple (who recently confirmed that they are working on an electric iCar to rival Tesla). However, there's a good argument to suggest that the current leaders in the car industry are Daimler, who have been implementing a similar autopilot technology to that of Tesla in high traffic situations for quite some time. But fundamentally the issue boils down to are the car companies going to build a better car or are the computer companies going to build a better computer and put it on wheels. From what I have seen in the Valley my view is that that the computer companies will win this battle!

Companies such as Uber are also getting involved, having recently completed their first successful 120-mile delivery using a self-driving truck – it was 50,000 cans of Beer just in case you are wondering what they delivered! Industry experts such as Brad Templeton argue that as automated vehicles become more common, car sharing will increasingly start to become the norm. So although Uber may be behind in terms of the technology when you compare them to companies such as Google, they are undoubtedly the innovators when it comes to capitalising on the concept of car sharing. They have already started picking up passengers in Pittsburgh with their self-driving cars – although there is a driver sitting in the car so that the customers feel more comfortable!

So it's clear that robo-cars are no longer confined to the realms of science fiction, they are very much a tangible reality. Astro Teller, director of 'X' (formally 'Google X') recently posed the following question "Is there a scenario in the future that doesn't involve self-driving cars? No. So let's just do it", and I'm inclined to agree with him. So, if car/tyre companies wish to survive in an increasingly competitive marketplace, then such technology needs to be embraced and utilised because progression in this area isn't going to stop to allow those who aren't already doing so to 'catch up'.

There are also many benefits to using automated vehicles. Firstly, energy consumption and CO2 emissions will be reduced dramatically, which would have a significant impact on the environment and would perhaps even contribute towards slowing down climate change. Robo-cars would also provide a safer and more efficient driving experience because unlike human drivers, self-driving systems aren't affected by distractions or ill health, and most significantly of all, robots don't drink alcohol, which is one of the leading causes of road traffic accidents. In fact, statistics suggest that on average around 3,000 people are killed or seriously injured each year in drink drive collisions in the UK alone, and such accidents could be all but eradicated when robo-cars start to outnumber human drivers.

This technology is equally positive for the tyre industry because put simply, automated cars will increase mobility. Whilst there will be less cars in parking lots there will be more cars around as demand for mobility will increase.  As such demand for tyres will increase but it does beg the question who will be the new customer for the tyres? Just imagine a world where driving on demand was accessible to everyone, where you could use your phone to order any car of your choice that perfectly suited your needs in that moment, all in a matter of mere seconds. This is a concept that appeals directly to the younger generations whose attitude towards ownership is completely different to that of their parents’. They don't think about what car might suit their needs tomorrow, they only think what car will suit their needs today.

Of course, there are some drawbacks; In 2015, hackers worked out how to cut the transmission of a Jeep being driven at speed miles away — sparking a recall of 1.4 million cars. Autonomous vehicles will need a high level of connectivity in order to detect each other: vehicle-to-vehicle communication which — if hacked by terrorists — could cause carnage. Cyber experts routinely talk of “ransomware” attacks in which driverless cars will be hijacked, with a ransom demanded to avert disaster. But I for one think that the pros far outweigh the cons, and what's truly exciting is that we aren't even close to unlocking this technology's full potential.